Hungarian polling organisations do not expect a surprise at the European elections in Hungary, as they assessed at a conference on Wednesday. The only open questions are who will get to finish second, and if the two smaller parties teetering on the 5% electoral threshold, LMP and Momentum will be able to secure a mandate, but all pollsters agreed on Wednesday that:
- Fidesz is looking at another landslide victory. Dániel Nagy, the research director of Nézőpont said that Fidesz will definitely receive at least 1.3-1.4 million votes, 1.7-1.8 million at most, which is likely to be a result more than 50%. Endre Hann, the CEO of Medián said that their latest polling data shows Fidesz will receive 52% of the votes. The forecast of Századvég differs from this within the margin of error - they expect Fidesz to get 51%.
- Turnout will be high, approximately 35-40%. Due to Fidesz's strong mobilisation and Orbán's rhetorics about the never-before-seen stakes of this year's elections, it's already apparent that more people will show up at the polling stations than last time in 2014 (29%). The researchers all agreed that turnout will surpass 30%, Nézőpont predicts 32-40%, Medián's forecast is 35-40%, and Závecz Research puts voter turnout around 38-40%. CEO of Publicus, András Pulai said that their latest survey shows a 47% possible turnout, however, he himself expects fewer people at the ballot boxes. So far, the data released by the National Election Office seem to prove the predictions right.
With no doubt about the winner, the question concerning the second place finally gave the polling organisations something about which they could disagree. Here are the predictions:
- Nézőpont: "Jobbik will not finish second," but it's impossible to say if DK or MSZP will, as supporters of these two parties are prone for last minute cross-voting.
- Závecz Research: The predicted number of votes for Jobbik is 450,000, 400,000 for MSZP-Párbeszéd, 390,000 for DK. Looking at the trends, Tibor Závecz noted that his guess is Jobbik will end up being the third of the three. The fact that Jobbik lost the largest amount of voters since 2018 and DK was the party that most successfully grew its base could very well affect the final result, though DK did actually perform worse last year than it was predicted before the 2018 general elections.
- Publicus: CEO András Pulai said that he would not make a guess until the numbers of their last survey ending on Wednesday are in, however, he noted that Jobbik has been getting weaker, the numbers of DK are consistently on the rise, and that could even "take some voters from MSZP too."
- Századvég: Their latest survey predicts DK at 11%, Jobbik at 9%, MSZP-P at 7%.
- Medián: Their forecast is the following: Jobbik 12%, MSZP-P 11%, DK 10%. CEO Endre Hann remarked that it was a good move from DK to place Klára Dobrev, university lecturer, businesswoman, and wife of Ferenc Gyurcsány at the top of their list because this could yield even better results for DK than what Medián predicts. Still, Hann maintains that Jobbik will be able to hold on to the second place.